Which North Shore project would you bet on to have the longest delays and cost overruns before opening: Don Barden's Majestic Star Casino or Port Authority's light-rail extension?

That looks like a 50-50 proposition. A riskier bet would be whether the North Shore will see any long-term benefits.

A year ago, the 1.2-mile rail project, which will connect the Downtown subway "T" line with the North Shore via a tunnel, was the safe cost-overrun bet.

Scheduled to open in 2011, the tunnel, originally estimated at $435 million, hasn't turned into a complete disaster, but budget estimates are being shattered, and now, 12 weeks into the tunneling process, a broken boring machine has set the project back at least a few weeks.

A series of delays reinforced with legal red tape forced the casino's original March 2008 opening date back to 2009. Now, Barden, who has watched his original $450 million construction estimate swell to at least $650 million, is looking for ways to cut costs.

He wants to scrap plans for an amphitheater and ballroom, which could save another $8 million. He's waiting for the state Gaming Control Board to vote on whether to approve those cuts.

And his PITG Gaming, which still hasn't raised enough money to start building the casino, is courting investors to back a loan from Credit Suisse.

Sooner or later, these projects will become reality. The question then becomes what benefit they bring.

Once the tunnel links the North Shore to the Downtown subway, developers supposedly will be clamoring to build along the river. But who is the "T" line supposed to draw to the North Shore?

Those few fortunate enough to live near a "T" stop? Will the North Shore truly be saved by sparing those folks the walk across the Clemente Bridge?

Barden's casino, on the other hand, almost definitely will draw people to the North Shore. The Meadows Casino in Washington, Pa., has no shortage of people with their rent checks in one hand and a slots lever in the other.

Pittsburgh should be a money mill for Barden, who holds the only slots license in the city. How that affects property around the casino remains to be seen.

Just don't expect those casino visitors to take the "T" back home, especially considering how service drops precipitously after rush hour.